A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
