Starmer's Allies Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Mayor's Commons Return
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.
Major Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process
Multiple members on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of sources also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.